Commodities Update Aluminium prices continue to tread a thin line Strong growth in demand and supply bottlenecks will offer some support to aluminium prices and premiums this year, despite a backdrop of Chinese overproduction and high global stocks. As long as a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing data stabilise, but concerns remain Today’s flash manufacturing PMI data for China suggest that the economy is stabilising. While stronger export orders and manufacturing activity are positive news for commodity prices, the commodity... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices set to cool The price of Arabica coffee has soared this year as the market looks likely to fall into deficit after four years of excess production. However, stocks are high and there is a huge risk premium in... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices will fall unless El Niño disrupts production We expect cocoa prices to fall back in 2014-15 as market expectations of surging consumption growth appear misplaced. Indeed, we expect the market to return to a small surplus in 2013/14 after two... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update All oils are not created equal The surge in US oil stocks on the Gulf coast means that the pipeline constraints which had been holding back the price of WTI now look largely to have been resolved. However, excess supplies of light... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Something has got to give in the global steel industry A sharp increase in US steel imports from Asia in the first quarter serves to highlight the overcapacity and overproduction of Asia’s steel industries. Surplus Asian output is undermining the global... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean supply set to be more than ample this year The latest WASDE report, released on Friday, supports our view that supplies of grains and soybeans are likely to be abundant this season. This should lead to sharp prices falls, especially of... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surprising apathy in the platinum market Compared to those of other metals facing supply disruption, platinum prices have been relatively unresponsive and traded in a narrow range. Nonetheless, we believe that strong demand growth and... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Surge in China's soybean imports likely to be unsustainable China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly again last month despite lacklustre industrial activity. However, the growth mainly reflects temporary factors such as earlier shipments from Brazil... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dwindling supply growth will ultimately support lead prices We expect lead prices to fall in the near term, reflecting concerns about the outlook for China’s demand and a relatively comfortable stock position. However, the market is likely to fall into deficit... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Nickel prices may have risen too far, too soon As of end-April, nickel prices had risen 32% since the beginning of 2014, defying the otherwise downward trend in industrial metals prices. The catalyst was a ban on ore exports by Indonesia... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Low stocks will put upward pressure on US natural gas prices Extremely low levels of natural gas stocks in the US are likely to put upward pressure on prices over the rest of this year and potentially even into 2015. 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper hasn't yet bottomed The unwinding of financing deals in China that use copper as collateral is set to add to the downward pressures on prices from a further slowdown in China’s economy, led by the property sector. We... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update El Niño will only provide temporary support to commodity prices An El Niño weather event appears likely in the second half of 2014, which may disrupt the supply of some commodities. The disruption could lead to sharply higher prices where stocks are already low or... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What China’s GDP data should mean for commodities China’s official GDP data for the first quarter, released earlier today, could reasonably be interpreted either positively or negatively for commodities. The commonest reaction appears to be relief... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
