Commodities Focus

Europe waiting for LNG to flow

The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the...

10th December 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Dec. 24)

While Trump's plans to implement tariffs on Canada and Mexico and to raise energy production by 3mn barrels of oil equivalent per day have grabbed headlines, we're doubtful that either will have a...

10th December 2024 · 0 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ delay won’t prevent oil price falls

The decision by OPEC+ to delay unwinding some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 appears to have provided food for thought to both oil bulls and bears. However, although the announced plans...

6th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Update

OPEC+ remains in can-kicking mode

While today’s decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of some of its oil production cuts until April 2025 buys the group some time, the backdrop of weak global oil demand means that it could easily...

5th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

European gas at the mercy of LNG

European natural gas prices have trended higher this year and are likely to fluctuate around €40-45 per MWh until conditions in the global LNG market loosen. That said, prices will drop back...

15th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Commodities Update

Trump, Middle East geopolitics & the oil market

It seems likely that the US will step up sanctions enforcement on Iran’s oil trade, though the oil market should be able to absorb this. The much greater risk for oil prices is a more dramatic shift...

12th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again

OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?

With the means, motive and opportunity for Saudi Arabia to undergo a reversal in oil policy falling into place, this Update thinks through the possible ramifications of such a move. In short...

17th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

It is when, not if, Saudi Arabia opens the oil taps

Although the focus in the oil market has shifted to geopolitical risks and potential short-term supply disruptions, just as importantly, we think the possibility that Saudi Arabia could open the...

14th October 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

All eyes on China again; Hurricane Milton fallout

While fiscal stimulus could provide some short-term support to metals prices, the key issue is that China's troubles are structural. So, China's metals demand probably won't be in a much healthier...

11th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Taking stock of the two-speed electric vehicle rollout

While electric vehicle (EV) rollouts in Europe and the US have stalled and are set to remain sluggish over the next few years, the uptake of EVs in China has surged beyond expectations. So, for all...

9th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China stimulus a silver bullet for metals? Think again

The stimulus packages announced by Chinese policymakers were the main reason behind the chunky increases in industrial metals prices this week, and explain why they performed better than most other...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read