Energy Update

OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025

At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Industrial Metals Focus

How metals-hungry will the green transition be?

The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as...

23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read

Energy Update

US shale boom approaching a peak

Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Copper price upsurge will not be sustained

The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ to roll-over?; China commodity imports up

With less than a month to go until OPEC+ meets to decide upon its next policy move, rumours are heating up as to what its move will be. Last week, anonymous OPEC+ sources suggested that the 2.2...

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Update

Your latest commodities questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism?

In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous...

26th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Focus

Fed rate cuts won’t send commodity prices soaring

The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower...

16th April 2024 · 12 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Don’t read too much into rising gold and oil prices

The prices of oil and gold have surged since the start of the year. However, we do not think that the co-movement is necessarily linked. Admittedly, tensions in the Middle East are a common upward...

5th April 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Baltimore tragedy not a major issue for energy flows

The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore this week is unlikely to have a large impact on global energy flows. For oil, flows of crude and refined products to or from Baltimore are...

28th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Commodities Weekly

The copper supply squeeze begins to bite

It was generally a strong week for commodity prices despite the US dollar nudging higher. Oil prices rose by ~3% after the IEA revised its forecasts towards a tighter oil market and following the...

15th March 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

OPEC+ conundrum; Indonesia’s nickel dominance

We think OPEC+ members will opt for a short 1-3 month extension in their upcoming decision on whether to extend their voluntary production cuts, as lost market share will be a concern for members...

1st March 2024 · 5 mins read

Precious Metals Update

Gold prices will climb higher over the next few years

We think that the gold price will rise in each of the next couple of years, driven by the Fed cutting rates a little quicker than is priced into markets, falling US Treasury yields and a softening US...

1st March 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Weekly

China metals demand; EU weighing Russia metals ban

It was generally a positive week for commodity prices and particularly for industrial metals prices. All major industrial metals finished the week higher, seemingly due to some improvement in risk...

26th January 2024 · 4 mins read