Asia Economics Update Malaysia to stay on an improving track Today’s better-than-expected Q2 GDP figures confirm that Malaysia is pulling out of recession. Malaysia’s upswing will likely be sluggish compared to the region but this should ensure that the... 26th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Poor monsoon will not derail India’s recovery Strong June industrial output adds to the evidence that India’s recovery will be sustained and probably rapid. The poor 2009 monsoon is a wildcard but, at worst, GDP growth this year should only be 0... 12th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China’s momentum slipping? Investors may have overestimated the speed of China’s recovery in the first half of 2009. But by focusing too narrowly on headline investment and loans data – such as those released for July today –... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean policy rates set to stay low The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged today. Economic recovery and concerns over incipient asset bubbles in the housing and equity markets have led some to expect policy rates to rise later... 11th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Focus turns to timing the first rate hike in Indonesia Bank Indonesia cut its key overnight lending rate by 25bps to 6.5% today as we and the consensus expected. While the accompanying statement leaves the door open for further cuts we think that rates... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Don’t trust China’s numbers, but don’t doubt the rebound Few will be surprised by the suggestion on the front page of today’s FT that China’s growth figures don’t add up. We created our China Activity Proxy (CAP) in an attempt to sidestep scepticism about... 5th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rates have bottomed out The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today as expected. The accompanying statement struck a more hawkish note than previous releases and markets are pricing in a... 4th August 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand Q2 GDP looks set for solid rebound The improvement in economic activity in June confirms that Thai GDP rebounded in Q2, while leading indicators suggest Q3 has started on a strong footing. 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation risks India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines is leaving its past behind Yesterday’s debt rating upgrade from Moody’s was catch-up and long overdue but does at least acknowledge the increased resilience of the Philippine economy to global shocks and its likely higher long... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China on course for strong growth and asset bubbles in H2 China’s economic recovery is real but the turnaround has probably not been as sharp as the official data would have us believe. Looking ahead, the rapid growth of lending in the first half of the year... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Hot capital returns to China, raising inflation risks further The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay on hold throughout 2010 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left its overnight rate on hold at 1.25%. Its statement was neutral, but Thai markets are still pricing in policy rate hikes over the next year. We expect rates to... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
