Asia Economics Update RBA holds for now, but rates have yet to bottom out Signs of stabilisation in the global economy and in domestic confidence convinced the Australian central bank to hold its policy rate steady today. But we feel the RBA is underestimating the weakness... 5th May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian recovery still needs deeper roots There was much to cheer in China’s latest PMI and April’s export data from Korea. But they are consistent with stabilisation rather than either economy springing rapidly back to life. 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Deflation and unemployment need not derail Japan's recovery The jump in Japan’s unemployment rate from 4.4% to 4.8% in March (consensus 4.6%) removes some of the shine from yesterday’s better manufacturing data. What’s more, unemployment has much further to... 1st May 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan on track for early recovery The rise in industrial production in March and projections of further increases in April and May support our view that the Japanese economy could start to grow again as soon as the current quarter... 30th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How much should we worry about swine flu? The outbreak of swine flu in Mexico and its spread to other countries has inevitably raised questions about the broader economic and market implications. While not wanting to downplay the social costs... 27th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Trade data suggest Japan's recovery to begin in Q2 Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy... 22nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Misplaced optimism in India India’s central bank seems remarkably sanguine about the economic outlook given that even the country’s more optimistic firms are struggling to raise funds for investment and the next government will... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the sun rising again in Japan? The improvement in consumer confidence reported this morning is consistent with our view that the Japanese economy could start growing again as early as the current quarter. Admittedly, any recovery... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China stabilises, but recovery set to disappoint Growth may have bottomed out in the first quarter but with private sector and overseas demand still weak, China will not emerge from this downturn as rapidly as it went in. 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai instability dragging further on growth Seasoned investors are by now used to unrest in Thailand and markets should take the latest flare up in their stride. But political instability will hold back the economy’s recovery, with the result... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank cuts, but rates nearing bottom Australian interest rates were cut again today, but given the central bank’s wait-and-see stance and its relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, they may not have much further to fall. We are... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan scrapes the bottom of the barrel The Bank of Japan further widened the range of eligible collateral in its money market operations after its Policy Board meeting today, although it is hard to avoid the feeling that it is now scraping... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus (revisited)? Today’s reports that Japan is planning another fiscal stimulus, which will include more than ¥10 trillion (2% of GDP) in additional spending, are little surprise. But they do raise the question of... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Has China's recovery begun? China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's Tankan to signal early recovery? The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
