Trade data suggest Japan's recovery to begin in Q2

Today’s March trade figures allow us to firm up our estimates for Japanese GDP in the first quarter and have an educated guess (with only a little imagination) at the second quarter too. The economy probably shrank by another 3.5% or so in Q1. But GDP is on track to rise by around 1% in Q2, which may well mean that Japan will be the first major developed economy to return to quarterly growth.

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