Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan growth forecasts nudged lower The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary”... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore is back but recovery to fade Asia’s first Q2 GDP release showed Singapore surged out of recession, and is likely to be followed soon by stronger GDP data from elsewhere in the region. Singapore’s recovery should continue but... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese stimulus earns government a poor return Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today amid signs that the domestic economy is recovering. Some commentators are expecting rate hikes soon, but we believe the significant... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Election result looks good for growth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How worrying is the fall in Japanese machinery orders? Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates set to remain low The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged today while retaining a slight easing bias. Recent domestic data have been better than expected, but we forecast renewed... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s budget: Going for growth, cautious on reform India’s Federal Budget announced today focused on keeping GDP growth on its improving track. The budget deficit and debt issuance target are at the high end of market expectations. 6th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan’s inventory correction not over yet The 5.9% m/m increase in industrial production in May, which followed an identical rise in April, supports our long-held view that Japan will be among the first of the major economies to return to... 29th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Chinese demand no panacea for Taiwan Taiwanese interest rates have probably bottomed out. But despite optimism about improving economic relations with China, weaknesses closer to home are likely to keep rates at their current level for a... 25th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan's export recovery already faltering? The renewed acceleration in the pace of decline in Japanese exports in May on a year-on-year basis has raised concerns that the fledgling recovery is already faltering. However, a closer look at the... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese equities could be the best of a bad lot There are good reasons to expect Japanese equities to prove relatively resilient even if foreign appetite fades again: the market is much less overvalued than it used to be; Japan is poised to enjoy a... 24th June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's growth still falling short Our in-house measure of growth in the Chinese economy points to a stronger recovery in May but we still doubt that the economy will meets the government’s target for an 8% expansion this year. 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan's Tankan to surprise on the upside Japan’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS), released this morning, has allowed us to firm up our forecast for the Q2 Tankan survey, released on 1st July. We now forecast that the headline index (current... 22nd June 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan won't lead a rush for the exit The Bank of Japan shows no signs of repeating its past mistake of tightening policy prematurely, as was the case in both 2000 and 2006. Interest rates will remain near-zero for the foreseeable future. 16th June 2009 · 1 min read
