Asia Economics Update Korea’s strong recovery points to November policy rate hike Korea’s Q3 GDP, published overnight, surprised on the upside yet again. The economy is unlikely to grow so strongly in coming quarters but continued recovery is not in doubt. The Bank of Korea’s... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia plans slow exit from fiscal stimulus Today’s 2010 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit but Malaysia’s move to the exit will be more of a stroll than a sprint. Lower personal tax rates and higher relief on incomes will support household... 23rd October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese exports jump despite strong yen Looking beyond the headline year-on-year figures, Japan’s export volumes jumped again in the third quarter. The strength of the yen is not an insurmountable hurdle as long as global demand is... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay in the slow lane The Bank of Thailand left policy interest rates on hold at 1.25% today, as was widely expected. Although the economic recovery is gaining some traction, there is little risk that inflation will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s hot money worries set to reappear China’s foreign exchange purchases, and hot inflows into its economy, have steadied. But they are likely to rise in the months ahead, adding to the threat of asset price bubbles next year. 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More stimulus from China’s banks and much stronger trade There was no let-up last month in the lending growth that is fuelling China’s stimulus. For now, the Chinese recovery is benefitting the rest of the world through stronger imports. But as commodity... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan in no rush for the exit The Bank of Japan’s silence on when it will end its purchases of bank-owned corporate debt is being interpreted by some as a lack of faith in the recovery and by others as a response to government... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Business conditions continue to improve in China Business conditions in China improved across the board in Q3, but small and privately-owned firms are far less exuberant than their large and state-owned counterparts. 13th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore upswing to stay strong despite 2010 risks Asia’s second Q3 GDP release showed Singapore’s recovery remained powerful. We expect the upswing to stay strong for some time, even though manufacturing will be thrown around by the volatile... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean rates set to stay low The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today, as expected. Mortgage lending curbs are tackling property bubble concerns and core inflation will likely trend lower. Korea’s GDP recovery... 9th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Near-term outlook for Japan remains bright The improvement in the main balances of Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey in September is a relief after the dips in the previous one-two months. Indeed, these balances are now back at levels last seen... 8th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian rupee on a roll that looks set to continue The rupee has climbed 3% against the US dollar over the last few days which, by recent standards, is a big move. We have long expected the appreciation and more looks on the way as India’s balance of... 7th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian rate-tightening cycle will be modest The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.25% today, sooner than most had expected. Markets are now pricing in further rate rises back up to a “neutral” level of 5.0-5.5% by late... 6th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia holds rates but probably not for much longer Bank Indonesia (BI) left its overnight lending rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and retained its neutral bias. But inflation looks set to rise sharply over the next few months and we believe that the... 5th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update PMIs add to impression of Asian strength Asia’s PMI releases today add to the weight of evidence that Asia’s recovery has plenty of positive momentum. 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update First Philippine rate rise likely in Q2 2010 Today the Philippines’ central bank, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 4% and retained a neutral bias. The economic impact of Tropical Storm Ketsana should be small and the GDP upswing is... 1st October 2009 · 1 min read
