Asia Economics Update New Zealand recovery off to a slow start Today’s Q3 GDP data show that New Zealand’s recovery is continuing, albeit at a weaker pace than expected. We still expect a sustained and eventually strong upswing. However, the markets have moved... 23rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine rates to move up in the first half of 2010 Today the Philippine central bank (BSP) left its policy rate unchanged at 4%, as expected, and retained a neutral bias. The economic upswing will almost certainly continue but inflation still looks... 17th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s upswing remains on track Today’s GDP data show that Australia’s recovery was sustained in Q3 on the back of solid domestic demand. Long-run prospects remain bright thanks to the mining boom, high population growth, and... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea signals policy rate will move up soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. More importantly, the Governor’s press conference commentary was hawkish and suggests that an interest rate hike is not far... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand signals earlier rate hikes The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate at 2.5%. But it brought forward the first projected hike to mid-2010 after steadfastly insisting up to now that rates would... 10th December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia meanders to the exit Bank Indonesia (BI) left its policy rate at 6.5% today, as expected, and gave no indication that it is thinking about raising rates soon. We believe that the risks to inflation from keeping policy... 3rd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to hike The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The economy is recovering but at a far slower pace than the rest of Asia. Thailand is also more reliant... 2nd December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia likely to pause its tightening cycle The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.75% today, as expected. The accompanying policy statement shows that the RBA considers it has already made a “material adjustment” to... 1st December 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s impressive upswing to stay on track India’s Q3 GDP, published today, surprised on the upside with manufacturing and services leading the way. The upswing will almost certainly stay strong and, as we have long signposted, policy rates... 30th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam makes the right moves The change came a little earlier than we had expected, but today’s devaluation and policy rate hike in Vietnam was no surprise. The currency will probably fall further over the next 12 months even... 25th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan is probably finished cutting rates Today’s 50bps policy rate cut by the State Bank of Pakistan was expected but, we believe, is likely to be the last cut in the current cycle. Politics is clearly a wildcard but the economy has... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia rates to stay low Bank Negara, as expected, today kept policy rates unchanged and again indicated that it will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period. The economy is picking up but the upswing is more fragile than... 24th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What happened to China’s fiscal stimulus? A resurgence in revenue will cap China’s fiscal deficit at just 3% of GDP in 2009. Looking ahead, the Budget for 2010 could signal how committed the government is to economic rebalancing. 20th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Capital controls unlikely, but rupiah to strengthen anyway Bank Indonesia is weighing up the costs and benefits of implementing capital controls because of concerns over “hot money” coming into the economy. However, we doubt the authorities will do anything... 19th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China gearing up for its own lost decade? There are many parallels between the current lending boom in China and that in the late-1980s which brought down Japan’s economy. But there are several reasons to think China will avoid the same fate. 18th November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan tops G7 growth table (again) We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of... 16th November 2009 · 1 min read
