Asia Economics Update Is the sun rising again in Japan? The improvement in consumer confidence reported this morning is consistent with our view that the Japanese economy could start growing again as early as the current quarter. Admittedly, any recovery... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China stabilises, but recovery set to disappoint Growth may have bottomed out in the first quarter but with private sector and overseas demand still weak, China will not emerge from this downturn as rapidly as it went in. 16th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai instability dragging further on growth Seasoned investors are by now used to unrest in Thailand and markets should take the latest flare up in their stride. But political instability will hold back the economy’s recovery, with the result... 15th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian central bank cuts, but rates nearing bottom Australian interest rates were cut again today, but given the central bank’s wait-and-see stance and its relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, they may not have much further to fall. We are... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan scrapes the bottom of the barrel The Bank of Japan further widened the range of eligible collateral in its money market operations after its Policy Board meeting today, although it is hard to avoid the feeling that it is now scraping... 7th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Can Japan afford any more fiscal stimulus (revisited)? Today’s reports that Japan is planning another fiscal stimulus, which will include more than ¥10 trillion (2% of GDP) in additional spending, are little surprise. But they do raise the question of... 6th April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Has China's recovery begun? China’s official PMI rose above 50 in March. This is good news, but China’s economy is set for a tepid recovery at best. 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in protectionism? We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. 1st April 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan's Tankan to signal early recovery? The Bank of Japan’s “Tankan” survey, released next Wednesday (1st April), will doubtless show that business conditions worsened further in the first quarter, but probably not by as much as the markets... 23rd March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan adds to its armoury Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest... 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Have Chinese interest rates bottomed out? A surge in lending might increase the chances that Chinese interest rates remain on hold this year, but if the economy remains weak, as we expect, the People’s Bank will still be forced to cut again. 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update BoK pauses, but rates still heading towards zero The Bank of Korea left the benchmark rate on hold at a historic low of 2% today. But with the economy so weak, we think the central bank will resume cutting soon. We expect that rates will fall close... 12th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No new stimulus from China The renewed optimism about China’s prospects that had supported global equities earlier in the week could start to unravel on the back of today’s disappointing budget. 5th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian central bank still has a lot more work to do The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to cut the key benchmark rate by 50bp today signals its determination to shore up a flagging economy. But with the key rate still relatively high at 5.0% and... 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Seven key issues at China's National People's Congress 4th March 2009 · 1 min read
