Asia Economics Update Thailand Q2 GDP looks set for solid rebound The improvement in economic activity in June confirms that Thai GDP rebounded in Q2, while leading indicators suggest Q3 has started on a strong footing. 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Will deflation stall Japan’s recovery? Japan’s renewed slide into deflation does not appear to have prevented the economy from rebounding last quarter – indeed the boost to real incomes may actually have helped. However, there is a growing... 31st July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India turns its mind to inflation risks India’s central bank is increasingly concerned about inflation risks, raising the likelihood that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year. 28th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China's leaders play to domestic audiences too The future of the dollar will be in the spotlight at high-level meetings between China and the US today and tomorrow. China is understandably concerned about the value of its stock of reserve assets... 27th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines is leaving its past behind Yesterday’s debt rating upgrade from Moody’s was catch-up and long overdue but does at least acknowledge the increased resilience of the Philippine economy to global shocks and its likely higher long... 24th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japan’s export rebound signals return to growth The Bank of Japan’s data on external trade, released this morning, suggest that Japanese exports rebounded by more than 12% q/q in the second quarter. This supports our long-held view that Japan will... 23rd July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China on course for strong growth and asset bubbles in H2 China’s economic recovery is real but the turnaround has probably not been as sharp as the official data would have us believe. Looking ahead, the rapid growth of lending in the first half of the year... 16th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Hot capital returns to China, raising inflation risks further The revival of confidence in China’s prospects appears to be drawing large amounts of speculative capital back into the economy, swelling the money supply and further raising inflation risks. Much of... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay on hold throughout 2010 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today left its overnight rate on hold at 1.25%. Its statement was neutral, but Thai markets are still pricing in policy rate hikes over the next year. We expect rates to... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan growth forecasts nudged lower The unexpected downward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s GDP forecasts have unnerved the markets, but we would not read too much into them. In contrast, the decision to prolong the “temporary”... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore is back but recovery to fade Asia’s first Q2 GDP release showed Singapore surged out of recession, and is likely to be followed soon by stronger GDP data from elsewhere in the region. Singapore’s recovery should continue but... 14th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese stimulus earns government a poor return Japanese consumer confidence remained on its relatively impressive upward trend in June, helped by the latest fiscal stimulus. However, this has come too late to rescue the government, which is facing... 13th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to raise rates soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged today amid signs that the domestic economy is recovering. Some commentators are expecting rate hikes soon, but we believe the significant... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Election result looks good for growth President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) almost certainly has done enough to avoid a September run-off in Indonesia’s presidential elections. The result is good for Indonesia’s economy and markets... 9th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How worrying is the fall in Japanese machinery orders? Today’s headlines from Japan have focused on the continued weakness of machinery orders in May. But we would pay more attention to the continued recovery in the more timely surveys of business... 8th July 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is political stability assured in China? The ongoing ethnic violence in China’s Xinjiang province has far more in common with last year’s unrest in Tibet than the Tiananmen Square demonstrations two decades ago. Investors will shrug it off... 7th July 2009 · 1 min read
