Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks increase again The shocking weekend events in Bangkok could make it more difficult to reach a compromise on the date of new elections, or may bring new urgency to the negotiations. We suspect that new elections will... 12th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Bank of Korea Governor in no hurry to hike The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. New BoK Governor Kim is sympathetic to the government view that monetary tightening can be delayed, while imminent elections... 9th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks should stay contained Yesterday’s declaration of a state of emergency in Thailand could mark the start of a dangerous escalation in the confrontation between street protestors and the government. But while the stand-off... 8th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australian policy rates to rise again in May The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 4.25% today. GDP growth should be strong this year despite the withdrawal of stimulus measures, while core inflation remains above target... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia on track to lift rates around mid-year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.5% today, as expected. The economic upswing will almost certainly stay strong but bank credit growth is still weaker than the authorities would like and annual... 6th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian PMIs still point to rapid growth, but for how long? The March manufacturing PMIs for emerging Asia (ex-China) were generally weaker but still signal that exports and industry will keep improving in coming months. Nevertheless, global conditions will... 1st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia aims to improve investment conditions Malaysia’s New Economic Model (NEM), published today, is a positive step toward promoting longterm economic reform. Boosting foreign investment, lifting education standards and reducing the role of... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam growth holds strong but inflation is the problem Vietnam is the first Asian country to report GDP data and the latest figures, released today, showed that the economy expanded 5.8% y/y in Q1. The economic upswing will probably strengthen during the... 30th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan set to stay on prolonged hold The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50% over the weekend. We forecast that rates will stay on hold for the rest of 2010. The economic upswing should... 27th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam moving too slowly The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) today announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during April. This is a dangerous strategy. Inflation has already hit 9.5% y/y and will probably... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rates on hold until June at least Taiwan’s central bank left interest rates on hold today, as expected. The economy has recovered very strongly, but inflation remains a distant threat. As a result, rates are likely to remain at their... 25th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand political risks contained, but for how long? The government will probably continue to hold the upper hand in Thailand’s street protests and a compromise is increasingly likely which will involve early elections. But a new vote may not end the... 22nd March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in February wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy rates by at least 50bps at the next monetary policy review on 20th April. The... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines inching closer to a first policy rate hike The Philippine central bank (BSP) left its key policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected, but continued to unwind some of the other support measures which are no longer needed. Politics... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Politics will stay in the way of Korea rate hikes The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. BoK Governor Lee’s term ends this month and his replacement is likely to be sympathetic to the government view that monetary... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track for mid-year hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as expected left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5% overnight and, crucially, retained its commitment to start lifting rates from around the middle of 2010. The... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
