Asia Economics Update Korean economy still strong in early Q4 October data released over the last few days show that Korea’s economy retained much of its momentum going into Q4. Capacity use is back at pre-crisis levels and house prices are still rising. The... 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update People’s Bank signals sharp growth slowdown in China The latest PMI data support our view that growth in China remains strong. However, the People’s Bank appears to disagree, with potentially major implications for the policy outlook. 2nd November 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September data confirm acceleration in Thai GDP The recovery in the Thai economy gathered momentum in the third quarter, boosted by investment and household consumption. While growth is likely to stay strong in the final quarter and over 2010 we... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Falling unemployment eases pressure on Bank of Japan The Bank of Japan has announced a timetable for the withdrawal of some emergency facilities that have become increasingly redundant. But the Bank’s own forecasts of persistent deflation confirm that... 30th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update RBNZ in no rush to hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), as expected, left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. More surprisingly, the RBNZ also remained committed to keeping rates low into the second half of 2010, an... 29th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam rate hikes inevitable and should be aggressive Vietnam’s central bank today confirmed that its key base rate will be left unchanged for the rest of 2009. But rate hikes look necessary from early 2010 and the policy tightening next year is likely... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia set for the slow lane Bank Negara, as expected, kept policy rates unchanged today and will likely keep rates low for a long time. Malaysia’s upswing is less established and inflation pressures are low, especially when... 28th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s growth peaks Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that seasonally-adjusted, q/q growth in China’s economy has peaked, but growth is expected to remain strong for some time. 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India will hike soon India’s Reserve Bank (RBI) kept its key policy rates unchanged today, but also put the markets on notice to expect monetary tightening soon. Worries about the recovery are diminishing fast and the RBI... 27th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s strong recovery points to November policy rate hike Korea’s Q3 GDP, published overnight, surprised on the upside yet again. The economy is unlikely to grow so strongly in coming quarters but continued recovery is not in doubt. The Bank of Korea’s... 26th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia plans slow exit from fiscal stimulus Today’s 2010 budget aims to cut the fiscal deficit but Malaysia’s move to the exit will be more of a stroll than a sprint. Lower personal tax rates and higher relief on incomes will support household... 23rd October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Japanese exports jump despite strong yen Looking beyond the headline year-on-year figures, Japan’s export volumes jumped again in the third quarter. The strength of the yen is not an insurmountable hurdle as long as global demand is... 22nd October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to stay in the slow lane The Bank of Thailand left policy interest rates on hold at 1.25% today, as was widely expected. Although the economic recovery is gaining some traction, there is little risk that inflation will... 21st October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update China’s hot money worries set to reappear China’s foreign exchange purchases, and hot inflows into its economy, have steadied. But they are likely to rise in the months ahead, adding to the threat of asset price bubbles next year. 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More stimulus from China’s banks and much stronger trade There was no let-up last month in the lending growth that is fuelling China’s stimulus. For now, the Chinese recovery is benefitting the rest of the world through stronger imports. But as commodity... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Japan in no rush for the exit The Bank of Japan’s silence on when it will end its purchases of bank-owned corporate debt is being interpreted by some as a lack of faith in the recovery and by others as a response to government... 14th October 2009 · 1 min read
