UK Economics
Our UK economics coverage provides detailed analysis and independent forecasts for the UK economy and financial markets, offering both rapid responses to new data and developments, and more in-depth coverage of key themes, current trends, and future developments.
We refer to Capital Economics daily, I would say there’s not a day goes by where at least one of the team, probably nearly all of the team, are reading some of the analysis.
UK growth outlook
This coverage helps inform investment decisions through detailed analysis of the UK economic growth story, from timely responses to market-moving events to deep dives into long-term issues
Read our latest Q2 2023 UK Economic Outlook
While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures weaken to levels consistent with the 2.0% inflation target.
UK inflation and monetary policy
This analysis helps you understand UK inflation dynamics, how they inform Bank of England monetary policy-making, and how this all shapes financial outcomes
Podcast on post-bank turmoil global financial conditions
It’s one of the big questions in markets after March’s banking sector turmoil but the prevailing guides to financial conditions don’t paint a very clear picture. That’s why Simon MacAdam, our Senior Global Economist, has revamped and relaunched our Financial Conditions Indices – and he’s got a very worrying message about what they have to say about the ease of funding availability and what that means for the economic outlook.
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All UK economics coverage
Explore our latest insight and forecasts for the UK economy
Meet our senior UK economists
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Paul Dales
Chief UK Economist
Paul Dales is our Chief UK Economist, with overall responsibility for our UK Economics and UK Markets services. Paul joined Capital Economics soon after it was founded in 1999 and has previously been our Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist and Senior US Economist. In 2022, he led the team that was named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. In 2016, the Australian Financial Review judged him to be Australia’s economist of the year as “he made all the right calls in a market that most chief economists found hard to read”. In 2011, he was named Bloomberg’s US house price forecaster of the year. And in 2010, he was part of the US team that was named Wall Street Journal US forecaster of the year. Paul regularly writes articles for the London Evening Standard and frequently appears on TV and radio. He holds degrees in Banking & Finance and Economics from Loughborough and London universities and the UK FSA recognised Securities Institute Diploma.
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Ruth Gregory
Deputy Chief UK Economist
Ruth Gregory is Capital Economics' Deputy Chief UK Economist. She joined Capital Economics in 2015 and has 15 years’ experience as a professional economist analysing the UK economy. Prior to joining Capital Economics, Ruth worked as a UK economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility and HM Treasury. In 2022, she was part of the team at Capital Economics named UK Economics Forecaster of the Year by the Sunday Times. Ruth is a member of the Retail Think Tank which serves to provide a balanced, considered and unbiased view on what is happening in the retail sector and to develop thought leadership on the key areas influencing the future of retailing in the UK. She has also previously been a member of the Judging Panel for the Society of Professional Economists Rybczynski Prize competition. Ruth regularly presents to clients on the UK economic and financial market outlook. She comments on economic developments in the media and appears regularly on TV and radio. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath.
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UK economics coverage from Capital Economics
Our award-winning UK economics service includes 3-5 publications a week, access to our online analysis and our economists, and the opportunity to attend our conferences, forums and webinars.
- Authoritative research by proven experts.
- Contrarian calls and thought-provoking analysis.
- Rapid responses, concise summations, detailed analysis, & independent forecasts.