Even so, economists will be able to work out for themselves how the government is faring and Gregory reckons that there will be a small rise in the government’s headroom to about £24 billion.
A decline in the buffer from last November “would raise concerns that more tax hikes are on the way”, she said. “That would lead to further unrest from Labour MPs already worried about the government’s unpopularity.”
Yet a much bigger increase in the government’s headroom to more than £25 billion could also prove problematic for the chancellor if she decided against taking advantage of the situation, Gregory suggested. “In this scenario, to avoid further rebellion within the Labour Party, we think Reeves would almost certainly spend the extra headroom, thereby loosening fiscal policy relative to current plans.”