Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How bad is Brazil’s fiscal problem? President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has touched on all the right areas needed to get Brazil’s public debt ratio off its current unsustainable trajectory. In this Focus, we answer five questions in order to... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus A look ahead to Brazil’s election Brazil’s presidential race is still very open, but the scale of the challenge the victor will face means that even a market-friendly president won’t be able to stabilise the public finances and boost... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What would an Amlo presidency mean for Mexico? A victory for left-wing populist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) in Mexico’s presidential election on Sunday appears to be priced in to markets. But a strong showing for his Morena coalition in... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Assessing Lat Am’s vulnerability to US protectionism Mexico, as well as several smaller countries in Central America (including Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica), are most vulnerable to a general escalation in US protectionism. But individual sectors... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Life still left in Brazil’s recovery Brazil’s economy has been losing momentum for several quarters, but it’s premature to think that the recovery is now over. Indeed, the conditions seem to be in place for growth to strengthen again in... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Is the worst over for Latin America? Following two years of recession, Latin America’s economy has shown signs of recovery since the start of this year. And, while political problems are never far from the headlines, we expect economic... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: export-driven recovery looking good…for now Brazilian export growth looks set to rebound this year as the impact of last year’s drought on agricultural shipments fades. This should help to finally pull the economy out of recession. That being... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Macri fix Argentina’s fiscal mess? With legislative elections due in October, progress in narrowing Argentina’s bulging budget deficit will be slow this year and we expect only a modest fiscal squeeze in 2018-19. More fundamentally... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexico & NAFTA: what’s at stake? Mexico has more to lose than the US from the renegotiation of NAFTA, but there are a number of changes that could be made with little economic impact and the government does have some bargaining power... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How do Lat Am central banks set policy? Our Taylor rules suggest that central banks in Latin America attach most importance to the latest inflation rate and the current output gap when setting policy. Some central banks (notably Mexico)... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for Brazil? Brazil’s economy is bottoming out and, while the recovery will be slow going, our 2017 GDP forecast is a bit above consensus. Inflation should ease and, although COPOM will move gradually in the first... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Making the most of weaker currencies? The weakening of most Latin American currencies has helped the region’s economies adjust to the terms of trade shock caused by the drop in global commodity prices. But while weaker currencies mean... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read