Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The economic fallout from political risks in Lat Am The pandemic appears to be accelerating a political trend towards populism in Latin America. While there is a lot of uncertainty about how this might play out, it generally points towards loose fiscal... 5th August 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina & the IMF: 22nd time lucky? We suspect that Argentina’s government and the IMF will thrash out a new deal, the 22 nd in their history, but we doubt that this will lead to the sustained turnaround in policymaking that is needed... 7th April 2021 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s tightening cycle likely to be sharp but short The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp hike in the Selic rate (to 2.75%) and hawkish statement point to a front-loaded tightening cycle in the coming months. We now expect a further 200bp of hikes (to 4.75... 18th March 2021 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico set to tolerate higher inflation We think that the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) reaction function will gradually tilt towards tolerating higher inflation. As a result, we think that interest rates in Mexico will stay low for... 14th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil break the spending cap? Pressure for loose fiscal policy in Brazil is likely to persist and we think that the spending cap will be cast aside in the coming years. The government is already testing the water with creative... 6th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Coronavirus deepens Argentina’s debt crisis The effects of the coronavirus will push Argentina’s economy into an even deeper recession and make the government more tempted to unilaterally halt payments on its international bonds. While we think... 7th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: stuck in the slow lane The prevailing view that this will be the year when Brazil’s recovery finally shifts up a gear looks overly optimistic. We expect that GDP growth will come in at just 1.5% over 2020, which leaves us... 14th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: After pension reform, what next? Brazil’s pension reform bill should help to stabilise the public finances and lift a dark cloud over the outlook. The government has a long to-do list of further fiscal reforms, although the political... 22nd October 2019 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Argentina default? One point being overlooked in the debate surrounding the sustainability of Argentine sovereign debt is that there is a significant risk of default even if an investor-friendly candidate wins October’s... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil’s central bank set to keep rates low for longer Brazil’s new central bank governor, Roberto Campos Neto, inherits a benign inflation environment and we now think the Selic rate will be left unchanged at its current historic low of 6.5% until at... 19th March 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: a primer on pension reform Rumours about the shape of the Brazilian government’s pension reform that will be presented to congress on Wednesday suggest that it is ambitious and would, if implemented in full, stabilise the... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Mexican interest rates to fall by more than most expect Mexican inflation has been stubbornly above Banxico’s 2-4% target over the past two years, but we think it will fall back within this range by year-end. And with the Fed’s tightening cycle near its... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read