Drop-In: The January US employment report and the labour market outlook

The first official US jobs report of 2026 will be a significant one, with the delayed release set to reflect major revisions to last year’s payroll estimates, alongside other critical adjustments to the methodology used to assess labour market conditions. How will these changes influence the US jobs picture – and what will the implications be for policy?

Our economists will be online at 11:30 ET/16:30 GMT on Wednesday, 11th February, shortly after the report’s release to brief clients on its key takeaways and to answer questions on the outlook for the US labour market in 2026. During this 20-minute briefing, the team will address key issues surrounding the jobs market outlook, including:

• What’s in the January report, including the impact of revisions and methodology changes;
• The extent to which the diffusion of AI is affecting the US labour market;
• Implications for the Fed as Powell exits and Warsh arrives.