NOI growth to be key driver of winning and losing office markets

The Southern metros are set to dominate the fastest-growing markets in terms of occupancy and rent growth with Miami, Dallas and Houston the top three markets in our rankings of NOI growth over 2026-30. Those same three markets will also see the strongest capital value growth over the forecast, joined by NYC and Atlanta in the top five. But when it comes to total returns, rises in MSCI yields in some of the Western markets mean that they will see relatively high income returns, boosting them toward the top half of metros. This includes Seattle, Portland and Denver.