Commodities Weekly Commodity markets still in flux one year into the war It has been a tumultuous year since the outbreak of war in Ukraine. Energy markets are still in a state of flux, though they have calmed significantly. (The prices of European gas and Brent crude have... 24th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US inflation a downside risk to our price forecasts Most commodity prices fell this week due to concerns about the persistence of high inflation in the US. Data showed US CPI inflation coming in slightly stronger than expected in January, pushing up... 17th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russian petroleum product exports to struggle The EU’s ban on imports of Russian petroleum products will come into force on Sunday, which could raise EU fuel prices and weigh on Russia’s product exports. However, we suspect Russia will offer... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices poised to take a breather After rising sharply for much of this year, the Lunar New Year holiday in China meant that commodity prices generally took a bit of a pause this week. The only exceptions were natural gas prices... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Spotlight shifts to developed economies The end of China’s zero-COVID policy continued to support most commodity prices this week, with many industrial metals prices extending their recent rallies. Economic activity appears to be recovering... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly China reopening to boost commodity prices The dismantling of China’s zero-COVID policy has come quicker than we and many had expected. Whereas we previously thought the first quarter would bring the worst of the economic disruption from... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly New year, same trends Most commodity prices declined this week, with energy prices falling especially sharply. Unseasonably mild weather in Europe and the US weighed on heating demand, prompting a plunge in gas prices. The... 6th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes will remain on China It was a fairly quiet week in commodity markets. The only notable move was a slump in natural gas prices. The EU eventually agreed its long-discussed natural gas price cap early in the week, but it... 23rd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Huge risks associated with China reopening The raft of inflation data and central bank policy decisions were key drivers of prices this week, but to some extent China stole the show. We now think that a dismantling of the zero-COVID policy is... 16th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
