The rally in copper, which has driven prices to all-time nominal highs, has its roots in supply concerns, which are likely to persist into 2026. But we remain of the view that weakening demand growth from China’s construction sector will contribute to copper prices falling back again over the coming years.
Elsewhere, record high LNG exports have driven up US natural gas prices, but growing global export capacity and weak LNG demand from China support our view for EU natural gas prices to edge lower from here. Meanwhile, sanctioned Russian oil exports remain resilient, and a broad rise in oil supply growth will push Brent crude prices lower towards our below-consensus forecast of $50pb by end-2026. (See here for more of our commodity forecasts.)