Energy Focus Introducing our long-term energy market forecasts The global energy market is in the early days of a radical redesign due to the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In this Focus, we introduce our long-term energy market forecasts, which are... 27th April 2023 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The economic impact of fracturing on Australia The fracturing of strategic supply chains into US and China trade blocs threatens Australia’s existing significant trade with China but also presents Australia with an opportunity to align its trade... 15th March 2023 · 17 mins read
Commodities Focus Population trends to lower wheat demand from 2040s We expect the wheat price to remain high this year as events in Ukraine and drought in other key producers hurt supply. Although the wheat price should drop back after this, the worsening impacts of... 22nd February 2023 · 14 mins read
Commodities Focus The fallout from Europe’s energy war The industrial sector would bear the brunt of any power rationing imposed as a result of Europe’s shift away from Russian energy, but the direct economic impact of this would be smaller than one might... 30th March 2022 · 24 mins read
Commodities Focus Sky-high European steel prices on borrowed time After soaring towards the tail end of 2020, steel prices in Europe have eased back in recent months. And we think that prices will fall much further over the next couple of years, as a combination of... 18th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of renewables on energy commodities We think that the adoption rate of renewable electricity will accelerate in the decades ahead, which should contribute to a near-continuous decline in demand for coal. Demand for natural gas should... 26th August 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus The anatomy of a supercycle History shows that supercycles are usually demand-driven, and that the performance of individual commodity prices has varied hugely both within and between past supercycles. In addition, supercycles... 17th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus The impact of China’s trade restrictions on Australia We estimate that the exports of goods and services that are already facing restrictions by China contribute around 1.8% to Australia’s GDP. While we still expect iron ore and liquefied natural gas... 23rd December 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Overview What a Biden victory could mean for commodities A victory for the Democratic party in November’s presidential election has several potential implications for commodity markets. Very broadly, Joe Biden’s pledge to actively promote decarbonisation of... 30th October 2020 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus COVID-19 to hasten peak oil demand In this Focus, we argue that the medium-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on both global economic growth and consumer behaviour has brought forward “peak oil demand” to around 2030. As a result, we... 8th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Commodities Focus China slowdown key to commodity prices in the 2020s The structural economic slowdown which we expect in China over the coming decade will weigh heavily on consumption of industrial commodities and their prices. Steel will be by far the most affected... 3rd March 2020 · 15 mins read
Commodities Focus Our new oil demand proxy points to higher prices Our new oil demand proxy provides a timely indication of the health of global oil demand, and lends insight into whether it is demand, or other factors, that is driving prices at any given time. We... 13th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Commodities Focus OPEC the exception, not the rule Most commodity cartels have failed to manipulate prices for very long, and we think that any future cartels in commodity markets will be no different. Arguably, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting... 15th August 2019 · 15 mins read
Commodities Focus China’s impact on agricultural prices to wane China’s economic rise over the past 30 years involved massive increases in commodity consumption and the country now plays a significant role in determining prices. However, the impact on global... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Why we are more positive on agriculturals Oversupply has been a major headwind for many agricultural commodity prices in recent years. But we think that, in many cases, stocks will start to be drawn down in 2019, which should give a lift to... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
