Temporary lockdown to leave a permanent economic hole

We estimate that the second England-wide lockdown will cause GDP to fall by around 8% m/m in November, prompt the unemployment rate to climb to a peak of 9% next year, contrib`ute to the government borrowing around £420bn (21.7% of GDP) this year and lead the Bank of England to follow an expansion in Quantitative Easing (QE) by £100bn this Thursday with an extra £150bn of QE next year.

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