Autumn Brexit deal less likely

We have reassessed our view on the likely timing of a Brexit deal. Our working assumption is now that a deal is reached at the eleventh hour in Q1 2019, rather than in the autumn. However, we doubt that Brexit uncertainty will knock the economy off course. And provided the UK leaves the EU with a transition period in place, we remain cautiously optimistic that the UK economy should be able to expand robustly in 2019 and 2020.