The 4-nil semi-final defeat at the hands of England on Tuesday will do nothing to bolster consumer confidence in Sweden, which is sinking faster than the boats that Freya the walrus climbed onto this week. While consumer spending has held up better than the indicator would have suggested so far, the direction of travel is clear and we think a recession is on the cards in H2. Next week, Swiss consumer price inflation data for July will show that the core rate rose above 2% for the first time since at least 2001.
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