US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP growth forecasts, the economy is still on course to record weaker growth this year than it did in 2018. Meanwhile, Egyptians approved changes to the constitution over the weekend that will entrench President al-Sisi’s regime, reinforcing our concerns about the country’s long-term outlook.
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