The good news is that Latin America’s economy appears close to bottoming out, with a sustained recovery now possible by the turn of the year. The bad news is that the pace of recovery is likely to disappoint. A combination of weak global demand, depressed capital inflows and remittances and the prospect of a pull-back in commodity prices means that the region will do well to grow by much more than 1% in 2010. We remain most upbeat about the prospects for Brazil, Chile and Peru. But fiscal concerns are mounting in Mexico and there is still a risk that what is already a deep recession in Argentina and, in particular, Venezuela, could escalate into a full-blown financial crisis.
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