Running into global headwinds

Growth in Brazil has shifted to a more sustainable pace in recent months, but otherwise the region’s recovery remains on track. For now, at least, the major threat to growth stems from global rather than local developments. While we expect the world’s major economies to avoid a second recession, we do see growth slowing in the US, China and Europe over the next year – all of which are major export markets for Latin America. Moreover, the risks to commodity prices lie firmly on the downside. The region as a whole is much better placed to weather these headwinds that it has been in the past and a moderate slowdown remains more likely than a hard landing. Nonetheless, we are sticking to our below-consensus growth forecasts for next year and still expect the pace of monetary tightening to be much more gradual than the market currently expects.