Inflation rises across region, policy response to vary

The latest figures show that inflation rose across Latin America in June and early July, but the reaction from the region’s central banks is likely to differ. Policymakers in Mexico will focus more on the peso – which is up against the dollar this month. Meanwhile, Brazil’s central bank is likely to look through the recent spike in inflation, which has been driven by the truck drivers’ strike in May and should be temporary. In contrast, we expect a more hawkish reaction in the Andean economies where growth is much stronger and central banks were in any case shifting towards tightening.