Divisions in growth outlook come to the fore

The recession in Latin America is over and almost every economy returned to positive growth in Q3. However, at a country level, growth prospects are now diverging. Brazil, Chile and Peru remain the region’s star performers and with capital inflows set to stay strong in the near-term, further measures to tackle excessive currency appreciation are likely. By contrast, poor policies mean that Venezuela and Argentina remain the region’s laggards. Looking further ahead, the pace of recovery is likely to slow across the region over the course of 2010 and into 2011 as the recovery in key export markets starts to fizzle out and commodity prices fall.