Brazil’s recovery continues to impress. GDP expanded by 2.0% q/q in the final quarter of last year and all the signs are that growth has remained strong in recent months. That said, concerns are building over the unbalanced nature of Brazil’s rebound and price pressures are mounting too. An interest rate hike next month seems a near certainty. But while growth should slow towards the end of the year, a soft-landing remains our central scenario. Elsewhere, Peru is enjoying a rapid rebound too, while the economic effects of last month’s massive earthquake in Chile should be relatively small and short-lived. But the outlook for other parts of the region is more challenging. Argentina continues to suffer from a toxic mix of record-high public spending and runaway inflation, which is eroding competitiveness, while power shortages continue to blot the near-term outlook for Venezuela.
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