The distribution of an effective COVID-19 vaccine in India will brighten the economic outlook next year, but India’s recovery will still be one of the weakest among major economies. One consequence is that government bond yields will remain exceptionally low, although we think that the rally in local equities has further to run. Meanwhile, the reform agenda that matters for long-term prospects is likely to take a breather in the first half of the year as several state elections loom.
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