For all the recent talk of a “Great Deceleration”, we think that the bulk of the slowdown in EM growth has already happened. Growth in aggregate next year looks set to be broadly unchanged from 2013. However, this masks important differences between individual countries and regions, and there are a number of economies where the consensus still looks too optimistic. The BRICs are likely to remain weak by recent standards, but growth in a number of smaller EMs should pick up.
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