What would a no-deal Brexit mean for Emerging Europe?

In the event of a no-deal Brexit, we think that weaker UK import demand would probably result in Central European GDP growth in 2019-20 being 0.3-0.5%-pts weaker than in a managed Brexit scenario. Meanwhile, the financial market fallout would probably be felt most in Turkey and Romania, where weak external positions make these countries particularly vulnerable to a deterioration in global risk appetite.