Revising our Russia forecasts

Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit above the consensus. Growing signs that slack in the economy is being used up suggest that capacity constraints are likely to become more pressing by early 2020. We have also revised our growth forecast for next year down to a below-consensus 1.3% (from 1.8%).