Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over

The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious approach to policy over the coming months as inflation rises further and the ruble remains under pressure, but we maintain our dovish view for the policy rate to fall to 3.50% by the end of 2021.

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