Polish rate call on a knife edge, but hike now looking less likely

Today’s data from Poland were a bit of a disappointment and leave next week’s interest rate decision finely balanced. Meanwhile, recent comments from MPC members have been as contradictory as ever. It’s a close call, but the chances of another hike next week are fading and it is now more likely than not that rates will be left on hold at 3.75%. Either way, the crucial point is that the comparatively aggressive hikes that are priced into the market for later this year are unlikely to materialise.