The 14th Five-Year Plan

China’s new policy blueprint seeks above all to promote a large and hi-tech manufacturing sector, both as a defence against decoupling by the West and as a source of productivity gains. Policymakers are pinning their hopes on rapid domestic innovation to leapfrog foreign rivals and to reduce the environmental costs of growth. But if rapid technological gains don’t materialise, they will face tricky trade-offs between their targets for economic growth, the environment and greater self-sufficiency.