Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has spread to 18 of China’s 31 provinces in three months), the pick-up in pork prices so far has been slightly less sharp than during previous epidemics. This is an encouraging sign that officials may be managing ASF better than previous outbreaks. Of course, with ASF not yet contained there is a risk that pork prices will jump over the months ahead. But even if this happened, pork’s smaller weight in China’s consumer price basket compared to 2007 and 2011 should limit its influence on headline inflation.