OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June) The gap between OPEC-10’s quota and output widened further in May, which adds weight to our view that the group will fail to fully unwind its production cuts by year-end. What’s more, whilst OPEC now... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Lockdowns are only part of China’s subdued demand The supply risks associated with the war in Ukraine have not gone away, but there has been more market attention in recent weeks on the outlook for commodities demand. In the very near term, the... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply concerns to dominate for some time yet Energy and agricultural prices continued to rise in May as concerns about supply more than offset signs that demand, at least for energy, could soften. We expect prices to remain historically high but... 7th June 2022 · 13 mins read
E.U. agrees to phase out Russian oil but exempts pipeline deliveries Edward Gardner, a commodities economist at Capital Economics in London, said he expects Russian exports to fall about 20 percent this year. The European Union should be able to manage “relatively okay... 31st May 2022 · Washington Post
Energy Watch Global refinery capacity at its limit without Russia In this Energy Watch, we argue that the refining stage of the petroleum product supply chain could become a bottleneck in crude oil supply getting through to end users in the coming months. Russia’s... 31st May 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Waiting for clarity on the EU’s oil import embargo A persistent theme in energy markets is uncertainty about the outlook for the EU’s imports of energy from Russia. It does appear that some sort of embargo of oil imports will be announced, maybe as... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell again last week, but at a slower pace. Once again, lower net imports and higher refinery inputs led to the drawdown. Although both drivers became more pronounced last... 25th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Easing of lockdown lifts metals prices, for now… The prices of many industrial metals (IM) picked up this week on news of an easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. However, we think weak demand and improved supply in China will send IM prices... 20th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week due to exports rising faster than imports and refineries stepping up operations. But high petroleum product prices should hold back demand in the coming... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy prices no longer appear to be “lifting all boats” Most commodity prices fell this week amid a general sell-off in risky assets and a stronger US dollar. That said, we think the days of higher energy prices leading to an all-encompassing rally in... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May) OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in... 13th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update High fuel prices to suppress US oil consumption We expect US fuel prices to remain historically high this year due to supply constraints. As a result, we suspect that oil consumption in the US will remain seasonably low for much of the rest of the... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand and supply pull prices in opposing directions Energy prices continue to be pummelled by upward pressure related to fears of supply shortages and downward pressure from signs of slower economic growth, tighter monetary policy and a stronger US... 6th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks rose last week on higher imports, lower exports and less crude oil being used by refineries. Implied product demand, meanwhile, was little changed and towards the lower end... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU oil embargo to hit Russia’s oil exports hard The EU proposal to end imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year has long been in the works. If approved, we expect Russia’s oil exports to fall by around 20% this... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
