Commodities Weekly Revising down our oil price forecasts for 2023 A few weeks ago, we flagged the growing downside risks to our oil price forecasts due to weak Chinese demand. Despite the loosening of China’s COVID restrictions since then, we think the end to the... 9th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Falling Russian supply to keep oil prices high in 2023 We think slower global economic activity and a somewhat stronger US dollar will weigh on commodities prices in the coming months. However, the recession should prove relatively shallow and we expect... 5th December 2022 · 14 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodities demand under growing pressure The latest manufacturing PMI data from China strengthens our view that China’s industrial metals demand growth slowed in November and will probably weaken further in December. 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside pressure on commodity prices mounting There have been a few developments this week that have exacerbated downside risks to our current commodity price forecasts. First, new COVID-19 cases continued to surge to record highs in China... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update China concerns raise downside risks to our forecasts With China now battling its most widespread COVID-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic, the country and its economy face a dire few weeks. As a result, China’s demand for oil will come under... 25th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial metals to come under further pressure Industrial metal prices are starting to come under pressure again, after rallying by 10% in the first two weeks of November. We think that weak global demand will drag prices lower over the next few... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) While the latest year-on-year increase in global aluminium production is suggestive of an improving supply environment, output actually fell in absolute terms and probably has further to fall from... 21st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly China COVID concerns weighing on prices Most prices fell this week as soaring COVID-19 cases in China raised concerns about the country’s commodity demand. Given the negative impact of COVID-related lockdowns on travel, it is no surprise... 18th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Oil prices were little swayed by the latest EIA data showing the biggest decline in commercial crude stocks in about three months last week, given that the data were similar to industry data released... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Too soon to call a price rally Commodity prices surged late in the week on the back of a slump in the US dollar, a fall in US real yields and some easing of COVID-related restrictions in China. However, we doubt that this heralds... 11th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply concerns to come to the fore before long The global recession will drag on zinc consumption even further in the coming months, probably leading to renewed price declines. But, towards the end of 2023, supply concerns should push the price... 11th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Higher oil imports not a sign of strong China demand China’s latest trade figures point to weak commodity demand both domestically and globally. Given that we don’t expect the slowdown in global economic growth to trough until early next year, we think... 7th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly End of zero-COVID rumours likely to be a false dawn Most commodity prices rallied on Friday as rumours circulated that China was considering a relaxation of its zero-COVID policy. However, in the absence of any official statements to that effect and... 4th November 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver prices to rise next year Gold and silver prices fell following Chair Powell’s hawkish comments yesterday. But if we are right in thinking US rates won’t rise by as much as markets expect, gold and silver prices should... 3rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in commercial and strategic crude stocks dragged total reserves to their lowest level since November 2001, contributing to a rise in prices today. Gasoline and distillate stocks also... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
