Commodities Update Lumber price to ease back on demand weakness After fluctuating between $500 and $600 per 1,000 board feet for most of this year, we expect the US lumber price to fall from around $520 today to $475 by the end of the year due to weaker demand... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Q3 Macro and Markets Outlook – From resilience to recession and beyond 11th July 2023, 3:00PM BST Will activity continue to hold up, or will monetary tightening take an ever greater toll on advanced economies? How will policymakers respond to any mounting signs of weakness, and what will these...
Commodities Outlook Energy prices to buck the downbeat trend We expect most commodity prices to struggle this year against a backdrop of a stronger dollar and deteriorating investor risk appetite. Energy-related commodities will be the exception. We expect... 29th June 2023 · 31 mins read
Commodities Weekly Growing upside risks to our grains price forecasts With the Fed still hinting at more interest rate increases, the dollar strengthened and contributed to declines across most commodity prices this week. One of the few prices that did increase was the... 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (May) If reports of a forthcoming easing of output restrictions in Yunnan province are accurate, then the ongoing slowdown in China’s aluminium production growth could come to an end soon. Much will also... 20th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Headwinds growing for lead demand We think that the lead price will struggle over the next few months as high interest rates weigh on new vehicle (and lead-acid battery) demand growth and new supply comes online in Australia and... 19th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly China stimulus a possible lifeline for metals demand Most prices rose this week, helped by a weaker dollar, stronger-than expected US retail sales in May and interest rate cuts by the People’s Bank of China. Natural gas prices rose particularly sharply... 16th June 2023 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch Supply constraints still likely to push the oil price higher The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch Supply constraints still likely to push the oil price higher The latest OPEC oil market report confirms that OPEC countries implemented a fresh round of voluntary production cuts in May, slashing the group’s crude output by 0.4m bpd. Similar to OPEC’s own view... 13th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand indicators to continue to drive prices for now The oil price ended the week flat despite Saudi Arabia pledging to cut output by 1m bpd in July at the OPEC+ meeting last weekend. Most other commodity prices rose, supported by China’s May trade data... 9th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Investor pessimism may be running too deep Most commodity prices have moved lower over the past month as concerns about demand loomed large and the US dollar strengthened. We think that prices will continue to struggle over the next few months... 7th June 2023 · 13 mins read
Gold heading for first monthly loss in three as dollar dominates "Gold will probably remain at its current level over the next few days as safe haven demand related to uncertainty about the debt ceiling persists," said Edward Gardner, commodities economist at... 31st May 2023 · Reuters
Commodities Weekly Data and debt ceiling to move prices next week Commodity prices generally fell this week, as investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate rose on concern about the persistence of high inflation. The dollar also strengthened... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to widen on US weakness The long-awaited inclusion of WTI Midland into Dated Brent is now taking place in a gradual month-long process that started on 2nd May. The inclusion of Midland could be a factor weighing on the Brent... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Apr.) Steel mills reduced output in April in y/y terms, meaning that global production is down year-to-date. We think that producers will continue to limit output for a few more months due to tepid demand. 23rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly US data the key driver of prices next week Dealmaking was a major driver of commodity prices this week. The 11th hour extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative alleviated fears of Ukraine’s grain exports being cut off from world markets... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
