OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.) Although OPEC oil production rose in February, it remained well below target. And while OPEC left its 2022 oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged, it hinted at revisions due to “geopolitical... 15th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Still a bumpy road ahead for commodity prices The seemingly unstoppable rise in commodity prices gave way to sharp corrections this week, though the big picture is that prices remain extremely elevated. We suspect commodity prices will continue... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update An extreme scenario for oil prices Russia’s oil production is set to decline over the course of this year under the weight of Western sanctions, but the scale of the decline will depend on the extent of the sanctions. In this Update... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial oil stocks fell last week on the back of higher exports, lower imports and greater refinery use of crude oil. Strategic reserves also fell to their lowest since August 2002 and will... 2nd March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices to stay higher for longer We have raised most of our commodity price forecasts this week to account for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the heightened risk of disruption to commodity supply. Given that Russia is a leading... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities The latest Russia-Ukraine escalation and our forecasts The latest twist in the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to keep commodity prices elevated over the coming weeks and months. And if the situation spirals into a more serious and wide-ranging conflict... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the upside risk to oil prices It is not in the economic interests of either Russia or the West to use trade in energy as a weapon against each other, but that is not to say it won’t happen. If energy flows were disrupted, we think... 22nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Geopolitical twists & turns to continue to drive prices It was a rollercoaster week for many commodities as tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine ebbed and flowed and the West held talks with Iran over a new nuclear deal. In the end, it was... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks in the US rose last week as refinery inputs fell and net imports increased. However, stocks in the WTI storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, dwindled further, causing WTI prices to rise... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities cannot continue to shrug off headwinds Growth in China’s economy has slowed sharply and US interest rate expectations have jumped but commodity prices continue to hold up well. In some cases, constrained supply explains the resilience in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update LNG growth to take some heat out of the gas market Growth in LNG exports, particularly from the US, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices in Asia and Europe. However, it will not be enough to return prices to pre-pandemic levels as stocks... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.) OPEC raised oil output in January, but the shortfall relative to target grew even larger. We never expected OPEC to manage to completely unwind its production cuts this year, but there is a growing... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Downside risks to oil supply are intensifying OPEC+’s reluctance to consider a more radical adjustment in its output policy this week raises the risk that production falls short of the group’s target this year. Admittedly, the group agreed to a... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
