Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) We think the continued rebound in house prices will come to an end before long as the virus outbreak reduces the volume of home sales and weighs on household incomes. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ unleashes full QE firepower New Zealand is set to enter a near-total lockdown this week which will cause economic activity to all but stop. The RBNZ launched quantitative easing today, but we think that more monetary stimulus... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Massive policy response to deteriorating outlook The draconian measures in place in Australia to curb the spread of the virus are weighing heavily on economic activity. We now expect output to decline by 2% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to rise... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Second stimulus will focus on damage control We suspect that the fiscal stimulus package that will be unveiled over the weekend will focus on limiting the damage from the coronavirus outbreak rather than on providing a large boost to demand... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Feb.) Today’s data show that the coronavirus did not have a significant impact on the Australian domestic economy in February. Even so, we think the draconian restrictions put in place will result in... 19th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4) The decline in GDP growth in New Zealand in the fourth quarter shows that the economy was struggling even before the Covid-19 outbreak which will surely drag the New Zealand economy into recession in... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession imminent, more stimulus will be needed While the New Zealand government’s large stimulus package will soften the blow from the coronavirus outbreak, it will not prevent a recession. As such, we still expect the RBNZ to launch quantitative... 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lower oil prices are not great for Australians Lower oil prices and government transfer payments may boost household disposable incomes in the coming months. But we think the downturn in consumer confidence and the rising number of cases of the... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Australian fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming We expect the Treasury to announce only a small fiscal package of around $2bn in response to the coronavirus outbreak. With economic activity slowing sharply and revenues undershooting expectations... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Jan.) The small decline in the trade surplus in January masks larger weakness in both export and import values. And we think the coronavirus outbreak means that exports have further to fall in the coming... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - GDP (Q4) GDP growth remained subdued at the end of last year, and given the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak we expect the economy to deteriorate further in 2020. 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surge in non-mining investment unlikely The capex survey for Q4 showed capital expenditure falling sharply at the end of last year. And while mining firms’ first estimate for capital spending in 2020/21 was very strong, non-mining firms are... 28th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Private Capex Survey (Q4) We estimate that investment fell sharply, by 1.5% q/q in Q4. But firms’ expectations of a pick-up in nominal capital expenditure in the next financial year suggest the drag from private investment... 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
