Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing downturn continued its run in Sydney and Melbourne in September, but prices rose again in the other six capital cities and we think nationwide prices will reach a trough by the end of this... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ setting the stage for negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continued to set the stage for negative rates today and we think the OCR will be cut into negative territory early next year. 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Labour market looking up The unemployment rate fell in Australia in August despite the lockdown in Victoria. The phasing out of JobKeeper is threatening some jobs, particularly those people in Victoria still not working their... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q2) New Zealand’s GDP fell by 12.2% q/q in Q2 but while the second lockdown should weigh on the recovery in Q3 we still expect growth to rebound by more than 10% in Q3. 17th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Indefinite lockdown will hamper rebound The lockdown in Melbourne will be extended into Q4 and only lifted if virus cases are brought down sharply. With retail stores set to remain closed until at least late October the weakness in... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Lower spending by National would be a drag Jacinda Ardern’s incumbent Labour party looks set to win a solid victory at New Zealand’s upcoming election. That might keep business confidence subdued, but it probably wouldn’t be as much of a drag... 9th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economy may have kept growing in Q3 The modest fall in private investment and the continued surge in retail sales set a high bar for economic activity in Q3, when tough restrictions will have resulted in a slump in consumption and... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Risk to overall trade from China is limited China has launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine imports which could result in costly tariffs on Australian wine before long. But the bulk of Australia’s exports to China are LNG... 21st August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jul.) The pick-up in employment in July is likely to unwind in the coming months as the stricter lockdown in Victoria weighs on the labour market. 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
