RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q2) The fall in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Q2 shows that the government’s generous wage subsidy protected many jobs but we suspect that as that comes to an end, unemployment may rise somewhat Q3. 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - State of disaster to slow recovery to a crawl The additional restrictions on activity imposed in Victoria this week to curb the renewed surge in virus cases will cause the recovery in output to slow markedly in Q3. 3rd August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The further decline in house prices in July is likely to persist in the coming months given the renewed lockdown and disruptions to activity in Melbourne. We ultimately expect house prices to fall by... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging virus success results in diverging activity A new outbreak in Victoria has caused daily new cases to surge to a record high in Australia. By contrast, New Zealand has maintained its elimination of the virus with new cases remaining very low and... 30th July 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Weak labour market to keep price pressures subdued Weekly payroll data suggest that the recovery in employment has started to go into reverse and we now expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8.5% in Q3. We believe that the huge amount of slack in... 30th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q2) The deflation experienced in Q2 is not likely to be a lasting feature of the Australian economic landscape. But we think underlying inflation is likely to remain depressed for years to come. 29th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Additional stimulus will be necessary before long Retail sales rose further above its pre-virus level in June. But we think overall consumption is still below its pre-virus level, and the new outbreaks should see retail sales decline in the coming... 24th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget update to reveal severe deterioration The government’s Budget update on Thursday is set to reveal a marked deterioration in the fiscal accounts, largely due to huge fiscal support measures. Most of that spending is set to expire in... 17th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The plunge in headline inflation to 1.5% in Q2 is just the start of the weakness in inflation which is why we expect the RBNZ to launch negative rates early next year. 16th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook More stimulus needed as recovery set to slow The renewed virus outbreak in Victoria underlines that the recent strength of the recovery won’t be maintained. We expect output to remain below pre-virus levels until the end of next year. While the... 15th July 2020 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Shift to online spending should outlast virus impact Online sales surged during the lockdown and rose further even as the Australian and New Zealand economies were opening up again. We suspect online sales will remain high which means measures of... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Renewed outbreaks will slow recovery in activity A fresh outbreak in Victoria has brought weekly cases close to their previous peak. That resulted in many Victorians being placed back into lockdown and caused panic buying of essentials to restart... 3rd July 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (May) The trade balance was broadly stable in May but given significant price effects, trade may have been another drag on GDP growth in Q2. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The further decline in house prices in June is likely to continue in the coming months even as economic activity recovers. We expect house prices to fall by 5-10% over the coming year. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
