Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Infrastructure spending takes pressure off RBNZ The New Zealand government’s $12 billion infrastructure package should contribute to a pick-up in business investment and GDP growth from the second half of this year. That supports our view that... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - The RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded confident when it left rates on hold today and we think the improvement in underlying economic conditions means the RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over. 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Coronavirus counter-measures to cause GDP to fall The ultimate impact of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the Australian economy will depend on how quickly the virus is brought under control. But given the disruption that has already happened to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in real retail sales provides some hope that consumption growth may have turned a corner. Even so, we still think GDP growth remained subdued at the end of 2019. 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter of 2020. Even so, the data has generally improved by more than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jan.) House prices continued to surge in January. But our sales to new listings ratio suggests that price growth may be approaching a peak. That’s consistent with our forecast for price growth to moderate... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bushfires & coronavirus to hit travel exports A combination of optimism about the prospect of a US-China trade deal and some better than expected economic data temporarily halted the decline in the Australian dollar towards the end of last year... 31st January 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing inflation won’t be enough to hit RBA target 31st January 2020 · 7 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
