Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales growth remained subdued in August despite the government’s tax cuts which suggests that economic activity did not recover strongly in the second half of 2019. 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in August was mostly driven by a decline in export prices so we doubt that net trade will be a drag on GDP growth in Q3. Even so, we estimate that the contribution... 3rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The 10% annualised rise in house prices in September is unsustainable in light of sluggish income growth. We expect prices to rise by a slower 5% in 2020 and 2021. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Falling global rates put pressure on central banks The Governors of both the RBNZ and the RBA argued this week that falling interest rates across the globe reflect structural as much as cyclical factors. Given that central banks elsewhere will... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates further The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more comfortable with its position when it left rates on hold today but we still think the Bank will cut rates to 0.75% by early next year. 25th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government deficit leaves the RBA out on its own The Government just missed out on achieving a surplus in the 2018/19 fiscal year, which means itis unlikely to deliver any additional fiscal stimulus in the near term. That leaves the RBA to do the... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The unemployment rate rose to 5.3% in August and we think a slowing in employment growth should drive the unemployment rate even higher, to 5.4% by the end of the year. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q2) Following the slowing in annual GDP growth in Q2, we suspect that economic activity will remain subdued throughout 2019 as soft business conditions and weak global growth weigh on growth. 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in July was probably driven by a decline in export volumes so we doubt that net trade provided much of a boost to GDP growth in Q3. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2) The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
