US Rapid Response UK-US "deal" reveals Trump's desperation to show progress on trade 8th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (May) The minimalist statement issued by the Fed at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting gave no hint that it was considering a further cut to the fed funds rate, at least not any time soon. As was almost... 7th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Mar 2025) The widening in the trade deficit to a new record high in March was driven entirely by imports of pharmaceutical products as firms looked to front-run tariffs. This was broadly in-line with the BEA’s... 6th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services (Apr) The rebound in the ISM services index to 51.6 in April, from 50.8, is another illustration that most firms are able to shrug off the tariff chaos. Admittedly, at 51.3, our weighted composite of the... 5th May 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Apr 2025) The healthy 177,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in April and unchanged unemployment rate will reassure the Fed that there is no need to be hasty in lowering interest rates when it meets next week. Given... 2nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2025) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index in April suggests that, while tariffs are weighing on the economy, they are not crushing it. And although the prices paid index is still some way below... 1st May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Mar. 2025) The almost unchanged level of core PCE prices in March is welcome news but, given the data precede the implementation of broad-based tariffs, core inflation will inevitably rebound sharply in the... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q1) The 0.3% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP was entirely due to a pre-tariff 41.3% annualised surge in imports, with net exports subtracting a massive 4.8% points from GDP. This surge now appears... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Mar 2025) The jump in durable goods orders in March was driven entirely by a large rise in orders received by Boeing. Excluding transport, core goods orders flatlined. With the post-strike boost from the... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Mar 2025) The fall in industrial production in March was not as bad as it looks given that it was driven solely by a large weather-related drop in utilities output. Manufacturing enjoyed a strong first quarter... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Mar 2025) A presumably temporary pre-tariff surge in motor vehicle sales drove the strong 1.4% m/m increase in retail sales in March. But there was also a big 3.3% m/m rebound in building materials sales and a... 16th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Tariff exemptions: Trump does Tim Apple a solid The tariff exemptions reported in the dead of night by the CBP on various electronics goods, including smartphones, semiconductors, electronic circuits and TVs, represent a partial de-escalation of... 12th April 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr. 2025) The further fall in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April, along with the rise in both one- and five-year inflation expectations, suggests that the tariff-related fears which... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Following the favourable CPI and PPI data, we estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by a below-target 0.05% m/m in March. Even taking into account a likely upward revision to the rise in February... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The unexpectedly small 0.06% m/m rise in the core CPI in March was partly due to steep falls in hotel prices and airline fares, which reflect both weakening domestic demand and the recent drop in... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
