US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2025) The rebound in the ISM services index in June is broadly consistent with our view that economic growth will slow rather than collapse in the second half of the year. While the prices paid index edged... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jun. 2025) & International Trade (May 2025) The 147,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June was reassuring after the fall in the ADP measure of employment reported yesterday. A deeper dive shows the strength was again concentrated in government... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun. 2025) The modest rebound in the ISM headline index to 49.0 in June, from 48.5, should temper concerns of a factory sector collapse driven by tariffs and lingering trade uncertainty. While the hit to... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in June was partly due to a rise in core goods prices, but the early impact of the tariffs has been unexpectedly muted. Meanwhile, the contraction in real consumer spending... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2025) The surge in durable goods orders in May was mostly driven by the Qatar Airways-Boeing deal announced during President Trump’s visit, but the small rise in core orders shows there were signs of... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed's Powell offers no hint of near-term rate cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared semi-annual testimony to the House today offered no hint that a rate cut is coming any time soon. Despite the recent dovish comments from Trump-appointed Governors... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Jun 2025) The Fed’s new interest rate projections still just about show a median of 50bp of cuts to its policy rate for this year, but it was very close. 18th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (May 2025) The modest decline in industrial production in May was driven by the volatile utilities sector; manufacturing and mining both increased, although admittedly only by a little. It is difficult to see a... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (May 2025) The weakness in retail sales in May was mostly due to temporary drags from the end of tariff front-running and the unseasonably wet weather in the east of the country, so should reverse in June... 17th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2025) The stronger-than-expected June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index suggests that, despite ongoing policy uncertainty, consumers have become much less worried about both tariffs and... 13th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (May 2025) The softer-than-expected PPI data mean we now estimate that core PCE prices rose by 0.16% m/m in May, marking the third consecutive target-consistent gain. Much like for the CPI, there was only... 12th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2025) The muted 0.1% m/m rise in the core CPI in May is not quite as good as it looks, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.20% rise in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator ahead of the PPI data... 11th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2025) The 139,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was not as good as it looks, given its narrow breadth and the 95,000 downgrade to payroll gains over the prior two months. Nevertheless, it shows that tariffs are... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2025) The huge narrowing of the trade deficit in April was largely driven by a steep drop in pharmaceutical product and gold bullion imports, reversing their earlier surge as tariff front-running ahead of... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2025) The surprise fall in the ISM services index for May suggests that tariff effects are weighing on activity outside of the manufacturing sector, but the Fed is likely to be more concerned by the further... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2025) The surprise decline in the ISM manufacturing index in May indicates that tariffs continue to weigh significantly on the sector. While the May data is less gloomy than initially appears, as a sharp... 2nd June 2025 · 1 min read
