US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Oct 2025) Consumer sentiment edged down to a five-month low of 55.0 in October, from 55.1, as a cocktail of labour market weakness, above-target inflation and, potentially, the ongoing government shutdown... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Sep 16-17) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-September FOMC meeting confirm that “most participants observed that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting”... 8th October 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Sep 2025) The ISM services survey will provide little comfort for Fed officials, with the prices paid index edging up again despite weakness in the activity and employment indices. Nonetheless, given the recent... 3rd October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2025) The ISM manufacturing index has reversed the decline since April linked to the tariff disruptions, although it remains below the 50 mark and the accompanying comments from respondents suggest that... 1st October 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ADP Employment Report (Sep. 2025) Although there is only a passing correlation between monthly changes in the ADP measure of private payrolls and the official non-farm payrolls estimates, the plunge in the former in September is a... 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug 2025) The strong 0.4% m/m rise in real consumption in August, coupled with an upward revision to growth in July, is further evidence that economic activity continues to do well despite slower payrolls gains... 26th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Tariff Announcement The announcement by President Trump that, starting October 1st, the US will impose 100% tariffs on imports of pharmaceutical products and a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks is not quite as big a... 26th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2025) The FOMC is now (sort of) on board with two further 25bp rate cuts this year but continues to anticipate less loosening in 2026 than markets have recently priced in, in part because it has become more... 17th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug.) Manufacturing output continued its long trend of underwhelming growth in August, bucking claims that tariffs would either trigger a downturn or a reshoring renaissance. Instead, the factory sector... 16th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2025) The solid 0.6% m/m rise in retail sales in August and similar-sized gains in core (ex. autos) and control group sales indicate that consumers are not pulling back despite the labour market cooling. 16th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Sep.) Consumer sentiment fell back to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, from 58.2, as fears over both higher inflation and labour market weakness weighed on households. That leaves the University of... 12th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2025) The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug. 2025) While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% will curb... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
