US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Sep.) Consumer sentiment fell back to a four-month low of 55.4 in September, from 58.2, as fears over both higher inflation and labour market weakness weighed on households. That leaves the University of... 12th September 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2025) Although the 0.4% m/m rise in the all-items CPI was slightly stronger than expected, our estimates still point to a target-consistent 0.18% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator last month. That cements... 11th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2025) The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Non-Farm Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revision (2025) The preliminary benchmark estimate points to a massive 911,000 downward revision to the level of non-farm payroll employment in March 2025 and, based on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Aug. 2025) While the weak 22,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August confirms what already looked a nailed-on rate cut at this month’s FOMC meeting, the limited rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% will curb... 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug. 2025) The solid rise in the ISM services index in August matches the generally positive mood around the economy’s growth prospects in the third quarter. The tick down in the prices paid index is a relief... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jul. 2025) A resurgence in gold imports partly explains the widening of the trade deficit in July. Exports were flat, but a weaker dollar and negligible tariff retaliation abroad should support them in the... 4th September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug 2025) The bounce in the ISM manufacturing new orders index in August suggests that, although the manufacturing sector is still struggling, it may now be turning a corner. 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Court of Appeals agrees that Trump’s tariffs are unlawful By a 7-4 vote, the Federal Court of Appeals has upheld the earlier ruling by the Court of International Trade (CIT) in May that found President Trump exceeded his authority in imposing reciprocal... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (July 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in July was entirely due to a rise in core services prices, and is further evidence that tariffs are having minimal impact on goods prices. Meanwhile, the rise in real... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP Q2 (2nd Est) Second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.3% annualised, from 3.0%, for all the right reasons. Growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers was revised up more significantly, to 1.9% from... 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (July 2025) July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole (Aug 2025) Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech was more dovish than markets were braced for. His conclusion that “ with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may... 22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (July 29-30) The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Aug 2025) The slump in the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment to a three-month low of 58.6 in August, from 61.7, suggests that households remain very nervous about rising inflation in the wake... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (July 2025) The small decline in industrial production in July was driven by the mining sector. Manufacturing output held up, and more timely survey data points to a small rebound in August. Once again, it is... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
