US Housing Market Update Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the rise in house prices becoming a concern? It is an under-statement to say that house prices have weathered the pandemic well; housing markets are positively booming. Yet the drivers of this rise in prices are rather different to those of the... 28th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update New apartments will start to get larger soon Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR)... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Conditions tighten in homeowner and rental markets The second quarter Housing Vacancies and Homeownership survey showed market conditions tightening in both the homeowner and rental markets, with vacancy rates at 56-year and 37-year lows respectively... 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Will booming house prices translate into rents? The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Bounce in high-rise demand to give way to gardens There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Timberrrrrrrr... Although we remain optimistic about the near-term demand outlook, we think that the price of US lumber will fall further in the coming months as domestic supply continues to revive. 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Valuations still reasonable despite house price boom The housing market hit a milestone in April, with real house prices rising above the previous peak recorded during the boom of the mid-2000s. But that doesn’t mean valuations are at dangerous levels... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in home equity won’t trigger credit easing The home equity share has surged to a 31-year high, which in the past may have persuaded mortgage lenders to ease credit conditions. But Ability to Repay regulations brought in after the financial... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update What’s driving the surge in rent expectations? Consumer expectations of rental growth have surged to record highs over the past couple of months. But that appears to reflect optimism around the housing market in general, rather than the rental... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices will avoid a dangerous bubble House price expectations have taken off since the start of the year, and that raises the risk of a self-reinforcing bubble forming. However, there are no signs that lenders are rapidly loosening... 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read