US Commercial Property Update Changing living costs key for remote worker migration Nashville has reclaimed top spot in our ranking of the attractiveness to remote workers of 52 US metros. Its continued dominance owes much to its relatively low cost of living, a factor that has... 16th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Buy versus rent dynamics favour apartment markets in the Midwest and New York State The large cost gap between buying and renting today underpins our upbeat national apartment demand forecast. Applying the same logic at the city level, demand in Midwestern and New York State metros... 10th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Proposed investor restrictions won’t shift the outlook The large institutional investors that President Trump has proposed excluding from the single-family market account for just 1% of home sales nationally, meaning barring them would not materially... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Has the Sun Belt lost its shine? Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the... 19th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update Lower rates to give mortgage lending a short-term lift We expect recent mortgage rate declines to support stronger lending and sales, prompting us to raise our end-2025 existing home sales forecast to 4.35m annualised, up from 4.15m. However, based on our... 29th September 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Is rising FHA loan distress a canary in the coalmine? Rising delinquency rates among typically lower-income FHA borrowers hint at stress in riskier segments of the residential mortgage market. But since most FHA borrowers remain in decent financial shape... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Labour market slowdown won’t curtail rental demand The recent slowdown in the labour market won’t stop rental demand from continuing to climb this year, given that falling labour demand and the immigration clampdown are most impacting cross-sections... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Dip in house prices won’t turn into deeper correction Recent house price declines suggest a shift toward a more buyer-friendly market, as rising home listings increase choice and temper seller expectations. Nonetheless, leading indicators and solid... 30th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Assessing the risks to single-family home construction Fears that single-family housing starts are on the verge of collapse because of the large buildup of new homes for sale are overblown. The accumulation largely reflects smaller private builders... 12th May 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US domestic migration trends to persist, but flows from abroad are at risk The latest data from the Census Bureau show that regional and metro-level migration trends seen in the post-pandemic years persisted up to mid-2024. But the six major markets, along with other large... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update The implications of lumber tariffs While higher lumber tariffs will not significantly impact GDP growth in the US or Canada, they will drive up costs for US homebuilders. As affordability is already stretched, it is unlikely that... 29th April 2025 · 5 mins read
