US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fears of Ratemaggedon are overdone Fed Chair Jerome Powell fuelled fears of a Ratemaggedon with a hawkish performance in his press conference. But even with both wage and underlying price inflation running at near 40-year highs, we... 28th January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron reaches plateau, leaving Fed free to hike We expect the Fed to deliver some heavy hints at next week’s FOMC that it is planning an interest rate hike in March. With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed becoming more hawkish by the day The continued surge in Omicron infections suggests that the disappointing December activity data will be followed by further weakness in January, but there are no signs that it will delay the Fed’s... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets wrong to doubt the Fed Market pricing suggests investors remain unconvinced that the now-hawkish Fed will hike interest rates as high as officials are projecting, either because inflation will drop back more quickly or... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Pivotal week coming up for the Fed Following Chair Jerome Powell’s markedly more hawkish tone at his recent congressional testimony, markets are braced for the Fed to pivot hard at next week’s FOMC meeting 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell signals turning point in policy Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was markedly more hawkish. We wouldn’t characterise it as a full-blown Volcker moment. But there could be parallels with former Chair Alan... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell gets the nod; GDP growth rebounding The announcement on Monday morning that President Biden would nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed Chair was largely as expected, although the unexplained delays in making it official may... 24th November 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Momentum could be sapped by winter wave While the recent performance of sales and production has been encouraging, the possibility of another winter wave of coronavirus infections represents a significant downside risk to activity over the... 19th November 2021 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rampant; Infrastructure week is finally here Headline CPI inflation hit 6.2% last month with core CPI inflation climbing to 4.6%. Energy prices look set to drop back a little over the next couple of months, but core inflation will breach 5%, as... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed risking falling further behind the curve While the Fed announced tapering as expected at its meeting this week, the big surprise was how dovish the language in the statement and press conference remained, which suggests to us an increasing... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Great Resignation and Striketober Employees are flexing their new-found bargaining power, with the unprecedented rate of job turnover, labelled “The “Great Resignation”, triggering a surge in wage growth for job switchers. Wage growth... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour force exodus shows no sign of reversing This week brought more news that acute labour shortages and the resulting surge in wages are rapidly feeding through into the most cyclically sensitive components of the consumer price index. 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read